Selections for Tuesday 30th of July 2024
1.50 Goodwood
1 point each way Stay Well (10/1 Generally, 5 places)
Stay Well is running better than his form suggests and is worth a bet at 10/1. He is a strong traveller who can line up with the pace which is important at Goodwood. He has a lovely low weight of 8-11 and is drawn well in stall 5 beside Killybegs Warrior. Stay Well was third to the re-opposing Dual Identity over 1m 2f at Sandown last September. He is now 13 lbs better off in the weights with that horse. His last two runs at Chelmsford when second and third over 1m 2f were good and he was only 1 ¾ lengths behind the race favourite Enfjaar on his latest run. Stay Well is significantly better off at the weights today and is four times the price of Enfjaar.
1 point each way Killybegs Warrior (12/1 Generally, 5 places)
The Johnstons have a good record in this race and of their three runners I like the chances of Killybegs Warrior. He is drawn in stall 6 and should be able to lead or sit in handy behind the pace from that stall. The key to him is the surface as he needs fast ground and hopefully there is significant drying for him throughout the day. He has fallen to a mark of 97, his lowest mark so far for a handicap. He has had plenty of racing and won at Newmarket last July off a mark of 99.
2.25 Goodwood
1 point each way Arabian Sun (13/2 Generally, 3 places)
The Parthenon is now a non runner which makes this a seven runner race unfortunately. Arabian Sun was second here over 6 furlongs back in May. He went one better when winning on his latest run at Salisbury again over 6 furlongs staying on strongly through the line. The extra furlong here is sure to suit and he can take another step forward here. Trainer Clive Cox usually only steps a horse up in Grade when they are ready and this horse has the potential to improve past some of these. He is worth a small punt.
3.00 Goodwood
1 point each way Kinross (7/2 Coral, 3 places or 10/3 Generally, 3 places)
Kinross loves it here and never runs a bad race at this track. He won this race in 2021, was second in 2022 (beaten a neck) and won again in 2023. He would prefer a bit more juice in the ground but there is plenty of pace on here and he gets the 7 furlongs strongly. He will have to leave a poor run on his last start behind him but he runs so well at this track he is sure to go close again. English Oak might have the potential to be a danger but she has to step up to this grade where Kinross is proven. His record at seven furlongs reads 6 wins, 2 seconds and a fourth.
4.10 Goodwood
1 point each way Equilateral (14/1 William Hill, 4 places or else 12/1 Bet365, 4 places)
Equilateral could be underestimated in this 5 furlong sprint with Jamie Spencer onboard. He is another horse who is very ground dependent and the faster the ground the better for him. He travelled like the best horse for most of his last race when third of six over 5 furlongs at Sandown. He is a battle hardened sprinter who is used to running in stronger races than this and has the class to be dangerous back in this company. The main negative would be his drawn in stall 13.
7.10 Galway
½ point each way Blues Emperor (10/1 Paddy power, 6 places or else 11/1 Generally, 5 places)
A very competitive handicap and I have reduced my stake to the minimum. The Johnny Murtagh trained Blues Emperor is the first horse I want onside. He is drawn in stall 2 and should be able to get a nice early position from there. He caught the eye on his last run when encountering plenty of trouble in running. He ended up finishing eighth of fourteen but would have gone close with a clear run. He was sixth in this race last year from a 2 lbs higher mark and comes into this year’s race with bags more experience.
½ point each way Casanova (12/1 Ladbrokes/ Coral, 5 places)
Casanova is another who is now too well handicapped to ignore. He was fourth in this race last year off a mark of 96 and is now on a mark of 87 and Adam Caffrey takes a further 3 lbs off. He would prefer softer conditions and I would be a lot stronger on him if the conditions were softer but he still has enough in his favour to warrant an each way bet.
**Date & Time of next Selections Tuesday 30th of July at 9pm..